The Phase 1 planning effort looks at current and future transportation and land use conditions, and evaluates the feasibility of potential East Bay hub station locations.

Key findings from the SoCo Rail Study Phase 1 Report for the mid-term (approximately 10 years) include:

• Based on infrastructure constraints along the Coast Subdivision between Newark and Santa Clara via the Alviso Wetlands, the ability to provide additional passenger rail service to San Jose beyond the planned one additional round-trip for Altamont Corridor Express (ACE) is not possible without extensive upgrades to the Coast Subdivision. This is unlikely in the mid-term horizon due to cost and complexity.
• Given capacity constraints along the Coast Subdivision and the time it would require for capacity improvements, an East Bay hub would provide a great opportunity to run additional passenger rail trains that could terminate in southern Alameda County without having to trigger large-scale improvement along the Coast Subdivision.
• An East Bay hub would provide regional connections to rail and bus networks, allowing mega-regional rail services to have regional connectivity around the Bay Area.
• San Joaquin Regional Rail Commission (SJRRC) supports turning back ACE trains in southern Alameda County at an East Bay hub as a strategy for increasing service in the mid-term horizon.
• Capital Corridor Joint Powers Authority (CCJPA) is not planning to turn back trains in southern Alameda County, so improvements would be needed along the Coast Subdivision to provide additional service to San Jose.
• A new passenger rail service along the Dumbarton corridor is infeasible in the mid-term due to constraints at Redwood City and capacity along the peninsula.
• In the mid-term horizon, enhanced transbay bus services via the Dumbarton Bridge to the peninsula market can provide connectivity to both ACE and Capitol Corridor services in southern Alameda County. These enhanced transbay bus services could serve the East Bay hub(s).

SoCo Rail Study Phase 1 Recommendations are as follows:

1. Based on analysis conducted during Phase 1 of the SoCo Rail Study, the Union City BART East Bay hub is recommended as the only “rail-to-rail” hub concept for the mid-term horizon (approximately 10 years) in order to:
   • Allow for additional ACE service into the Bay Area;
   • Provide ACE-BART connection; and
   • Ensure the highest level of connectivity to key travel markets throughout the Bay Area.
2. To begin project implementation of Union City BART East Bay Hub, immediately pursue detailed planning and initial project development as part of Phase 2 of the SoCo Rail Study.
3. The other East Bay hub concepts studied during Phase 1 of the SoCo Rail Study for the mid-term horizon — which include Ardenwood, Fremont-Centerville, Newark Junction, South of Newark, Shinn Junction and Warm Springs BART concept — are not recommended for further study as part of Phase 2 of the SoCo Rail Study.

Phase 2 is a detailed planning effort which includes initial project development of the East Bay hub concept recommended in Phase 1. Station, alignment and service planning details will be developed from comprehensive ridership and operational analyses. Phase 2 also includes the development of a project implementation plan, which considerations include:

• Development of conceptual operations plan
• Modeling of the estimated ridership for the increase in ACE trains to the Union City East Bay hub concept
• Conduct an equity analysis
• Identification and conceptual design of infrastructure improvements
• Develop rough order of magnitude capital and operating cost estimates
• Establish a conceptual level funding and financing plan
• Create an implementation plan outlining steps for project development and opening service